Ideas@TheCentre
Shooting reinforces Pakistan’s rogue status
It is not yet clear who was behind the Tuesday terrorist attack in Lahore against the Sri Lankan cricket team. But the security failure serves to remind us of one thing: No matter which way you look at it, Pakistan is the problem from hell. Pakistan, and not Iran, is likely to be the most intractable foreign policy problem for the Obama administration.
Pakistan was a country fading from American attention until 9/11 when it became a key partner in President Bush’s ‘war on terror.’ Since then, Pakistan has received about US$8 billion in military and construction aid.
Yet it remains a failing state with an unstable government. Large swathes of the country, especially along its north-west border shared with Afghanistan, is ungovernable. These tribal areas – where Osama bin Laden is believed to be hiding – are Islamist strongholds.
Weapons, men and suicide bombers pour into Afghanistan each day to battle US and NATO forces. There are an estimated 8,000 foreign militants operating in terrorist camps in these regions in addition to the tens of thousands of home-grown jihadists. Significant elements within Pakistan’s government, military and intelligence have strong reasons to keep the Taliban in business in Afghanistan.
Pakistan is increasingly vulnerable to chaos even in the cities. It is estimated that a third of Pakistan’s military are sympathetic to Islamist causes. The infrastructure of governance in the country is undeveloped, and the post-Musharraf government led by President Asif Ali Zardari is divided and weak. Moreover, Pakistan is a country with nuclear weapons. Islamic terrorist groups such as Al-Qaeda seeking to procure nuclear material for a weapon will more likely get it from Pakistan than from anywhere else.
For a long time, the problem of Pakistan was understood in the context of India–Pakistan hostility. There is strong evidence that under the Obama administration, this will change. For example, seasoned diplomat Richard Holbrook has been appointed as the ‘Special Representative for Pakistan and Afghanistan.’ The India–Pakistan rivalry remains a problem, but it is not the most pressing one. Both Pakistan and Afghanistan are correctly being lumped together and being treated as failing states that complicate the struggle against terrorism.
The problems created by failing states are often the most unwieldy. Iran might even appear manageable by comparison. The precise motivations of the perpetrators of Tuesday’s attack are as yet unclear. But the security failure in Lahore is a strong reminder of a volatile and failing Pakistani state.
Dr John Lee is a Visiting Fellow at CIS.
