Ideas@TheCentre
Can Indonesia's recent past become Egypt's near future?
While the attention of the world this week turned to events unfolding in Libya, unresolved questions remain about a post-Mubarak Egypt. Will the revolution slide Egypt into further authoritarianism or towards democracy? Will Egypt become Iran or Indonesia?
Commentators across the world speculate that Egypt in 2011 could come to resemble Indonesia in 1998. Indonesia’s long-serving President Suharto was forced to resign after two and a half weeks of mass protests in that year – the same length of time it took Mubarak to resign last month.
Suharto came to power at the height of the Cold War, and Western governments were happy to accept his authoritarian excesses in the belief that a strong, stable dictatorship was necessary to prevent socialism from taking root.
Like Mubarak, Suharto was a brutal dictator who gave the military a central role in government. And like Mubarak, he used his power to corruptly enrich himself and his family.
Indonesia in 1998, like Egypt in 2011, had a large, young and relatively poor population. Young Egyptians took to the streets in a wave of anti-government demonstrations following protests in Tunisia; in Indonesia, students came together to protest massive spikes in the price of rice following the onset of the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis.
Suharto had gained some legitimacy because Indonesia’s economy performed so well during his tenure. But with the economy tanking, Indonesians were no longer willing to put up with his authoritarian rule. The military withdrew its support, leaving Suharto’s presidency untenable.
As Indonesia moved towards democracy in the post-Suharto period, fears grew that either the military or radical Islamic groups would seize political power. Today, both are part of the political landscape but neither dominates.
Two large Muslim civil society organisations, Muhammadiah and Nahdlatul Ulama, were able to organise quickly, and their spin-off political parties performed reasonably well in early elections. But since then, support for religious parties has fallen. In the 2009 election, the largest Muslim party, the PKS or Prosperous Justice Party, gained only about 8% of the vote. Indonesian Muslims, while increasingly devout, have turned out to be mostly politically secular.
The PKS was modelled on Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood, but it gave up its radical Islamist policies after realising they didn’t hold much electoral appeal.
Reform of the Indonesian military is far from complete, and some ex-generals (including the current president) still hold positions of power. But the military no longer has the privileged place in Parliament and in business that it had under Suharto.
Egypt’s future might turn out to be nothing like Indonesia’s past. But the experience of post-Suharto Indonesia demonstrates that perhaps democracy in Egypt is possible.
Jessica Brown is a Research Fellow at the CIS. Her report Jakarta’s Juggling Act was released by the CIS last month. Click here to watch Jessica in discussion with Dr. John Lee regarding her report.
