Ideas@TheCentre
'Team Clinton' on the rise in Asia
Hillary Clinton wrapped up her seven-nation Asia tour on Monday while Barack Obama is currently in the middle of his four-nation tour of Asia. But just as Clinton's reputation in Asia is growing, Obama's is declining. For the first time in a long while, there seems to be more gravitas and interest in what the Secretary of State is saying about US foreign policy in Asia than the President.
Domestic political problems are inhibiting his leadership in the region since a weak President at home detracts from his reputation abroad. The shellacking of the Democrats in the recent Congressional elections confirms how far Obama has fallen from his lofty heights.
But as far as Asia is concerned, it is also about instincts and policy. The region has always looked to America for two things: trade and security. Obama is seen as unenthusiastic about free trade. When it comes to security, his instinct was to pursue a 'China first' policy of reassurance and partnership. As America subsequently appeared both weak and naive, this had the effect of making many Asian states feel even more insecure.
In contrast, Clinton's instincts are more combative. Her personal discomfort in pursuing the more conciliatory line towards China was obvious in the first two years of the Obama administration. After the failure of Obama's more conciliatory approach to China – culminating in Beijing's disrespectful and even scornful treatment of the President at the November 2009 Copenhagen conference – insiders in the administration openly declared that 'the gloves were off.' Given Obama's domestic, political and economic concerns, America's 'Asia policy' was largely handed over to 'Team Clinton.'
As far as much of Asia is concerned, it is just as well. When Beijing aggressively reasserted its claims in East China Sea and South China Sea throughout 2010, Clinton found herself in her element. Whereas Obama looks a distracted and greatly diminished leader, Clinton appears decisive and resolute – entrenching America's traditional role as keeper of the peace in Asia rather than one seeking to negotiate a grand bargain with China (which might come at the region's expense).
Obama will spend much of the next two years repositioning for re-election in 2012, which will give more room to move and discretion for 'Team Clinton' in Asia.
Dr John Lee is a foreign policy research fellow at The Centre for Independent Studies.
