Ideas@TheCentre
Taking India seriously
Washington as well as Asian capitals such as Tokyo, Jakarta, Singapore, and Hanoi have been busily courting New Delhi with impressive results. But the weakest link in New Delhi’s growing network with centres of influence in the region is with Canberra. If Australia wants to remain an active, relevant and influential ‘middle power’ in Asia, then spending the next half decade improving our bilateral relationship with countries such as India is much more important and a better use of finite time, resources and energy than the nice-sounding but premature idea of an Asian Pacific Community (APC).
India’s economy has been growing at about 7-8% each year since reforms began in 1991. But in important respects, India’s economic prospects appear more favourable. Unlike China whose population is ageing, more than half of India’s current population is under the age of 25 years. If reforms continue, India will reap a massive ‘demographic dividend’ well past the middle of this century. Already, India has a vibrant and thriving middle class of 300 million people compared to around 50 million–100 million in China. This means it has a critical mass of people generating economic resources needed to entrench New Delhi’s status as not just a South Asian colossus but a major centre of power within the entire Asian continent.
But it is not just about economic opportunities. A rising India provides a helpful counter-balance to a rising China. This explains the immense diplomatic efforts undertaken to build better relations with India as well as American and regional strategic interest in courting New Delhi. For example, the Indian Navy already conducts extensive exercises with Washington and Jakarta, and increasingly with Tokyo, Singapore, Kuala Lumpur, Manila, and Hanoi. Some of these joint exercises include anti-submarine manoeuvres, with a clear eye on China’s growing submarine fleet.
Even though Prime Minister Kevin Rudd will visit Manmohan Singh in New Delhi this month, India is still treated as a sizable but strategic afterthought by the current government. Before rushing to build new security multilateral institutions, Canberra needs to do the hard graft of building strong bilateral relationships with centres of power such as New Delhi as the rest of the region is doing. Doing so is the best approach, not just for managing China’s rise but for ensuring that Australia remains relevant, active and influential in Asia well into the future rather than on its sidelines.
Dr John Lee is a foreign policy Research Fellow at The Centre for Independent Studies in Sydney and a Visiting Fellow at the Hudson Institute in Washington, D.C. His report The Importance of India: restoring sight to Australia’s strategic blind spot was released this week.
