Ideas@TheCentre
Why America Will Lead the 'Asian Century'
The decline of American influence in Asia is exaggerated. True, power and influence are built on the back of economic success and the Chinese and India economies have been doubling in size every 10 years since 1978 and 1991 respectively. But, America has two important advantages in Asia.
First, even if China continues to grow at double digit rates, in terms of economic and military power, the US will remain dominant by any measurement of raw power for several more decades.
Second, Asia has a unique kind of hierarchical security system which will likely entrench America leadership well into this century. Let me explain.
Despite the fact that America spends more on defense than the next 10 powers combined, it actually relies on the cooperation of other states to remain predominant. Without cooperation from allies such as Japan, South Korea, Singapore and the Philippines, the US could not retain its forward military positions in the West Pacific. Likewise, the US needs the cooperation of Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand to host its critical radar infrastructure.
On top of this, America requires other key states and regional groupings, such as ASEAN, to acquiesce in its security relationships. Therefore there is broad-based regional approval of US alliances with Japan, South Korea and Australia, as well as with partners such as the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and India.
Importantly, this interdependent relationship means that the US—as a foreign power—is not so powerful that it can readily ignore the wishes of key states, making America the overwhelmingly choice as leader in Asia now and in the future. Were an Asian country like China to rise to the top, it would not need the same level of regional cooperation and acquiescence to maintain its position and military footholds. If China were to make a bid for regional hegemony, it will find it difficult to resist the structural constraints placed on it by other states within this hierarchy.
Therefore, despite justifiable talk of this century being an ‘Asian Century’, US leadership in the region will remain remarkably resilient.
Dr John Lee is a Research Fellow at the Centre. His report Why America Will Lead the 'Asian Century' was released by CIS this week.
