Opinion & Commentary
Why Obama must look to the Pacific before the Atlantic
It is significant that the election of Barack Obama as president of the United States was greeted most warmly by Europeans. The Democrats tend to be the party of the Atlantic and the Republicans the party of the Pacific. Obama represents a wiser, more hopeful and progressive America – a superpower that can reclaim lost ground. But if Obama wants to renew American leadership in the world, he must take a page out of John McCain’s book and focus on cultivating allies in Asia and not just Europe. It is now well accepted that economic and eventually political power will shift from the west to the east. Asia is home to two thirds of all people in the world. Three of the four biggest economies will soon be Asian economies. America’s greatest challenger and also its most important friends will be in Asia.
The common wisdom in many parts of Asia is that the Obama presidency will be better news for American leadership in the region. After all, Obama fondly recalls the four formative years he spent in Indonesia between the ages of six and ten. Moreover, many believe that America under the Obama administration will be more ‘outward looking’ and a ‘better listener’ than America was under George W. Bush is or would have been under John McCain. While McCain would have been greeted politely by many Asians, Obama will most likely be greeted rapturously. But Asia remains wary about the direction an Obama presidency will take foreign policy in the region.
Individual background and personality – identity in short – defines the style of leadership. But security strategy and outlook provides the framework. America is a superpower preoccupied by an economic crisis, two wars, and an ongoing global terrorist threat. America’s foreign policy in Asia was not a huge issue in the Obama campaign. More than likely, Obama’s Asian strategy will be focused on just one big issue: China. In particular, the centerpiece of the Obama’s Asian strategy will be to deepen bilateral ties between Washington and Beijing. That is how key Democrats from the second-term Clinton administration onwards sought to manage the rise of China and it will be the approach Hilary Clinton will take if she gets the job as Secretary of State.
John McCain had a different strategy for managing China’s rise. He wanted to build on what former deputy secretary of state Richard Armitage considered all-important: working with existing American alliance and security partners to ‘shape’ the future of Asia. This means reaffirming and deepening existing security alliances with countries such as Japan, Thailand, the Philippines, South Korea, and Australia. It also means deepening relations with potential new allies such as India.
This strategy is designed to not only improve American standing and influence in the region, but to also ‘manage’ the rise of China through an expanded network of bilateral relationships. America recognises that its period of undisputed dominance in the region is gradually declining. But by working with allies and partners to shape the region’s rules and institutions, the plan is to tame Chinese opportunism, to prevent future Chinese mischief, and to persuade China that it is better to play by existing rules than to subvert or revise them.
President Obama is appealing because many believe he has a ‘vision’ for America. But if America wants to preserve its leadership and preeminence in Asia, Obama needs to get Asian allies to buy into that vision. For this to happen, America must allow them a larger strategic role. Frequent talk about Asian regionalism distracts from the fact that great power competition in Asia is already well underway. Look at the space race going on between Japan, China, India and South Korea for a glimpse of Asia’s future. The whole of Asia is carefully watching China’s rise, and will be keenly observing Obama’s response to it.
In the past half-century, much of the work of building engagement between Asia and the US has already been done. The vast majority of Asian countries warmly welcome American leadership now and the prospect of it in the future. But they do so only provided that America has a plan to manage the rise of China and to treat existing allies as vital strategic pivots. Otherwise, those allies and partners will eventually pursue their own strategies for dealing with increasing Chinese power, which would be detrimental to American leadership.
Revitalising relations with European allies is important for Obama, but it is relatively low-hanging fruit. European leaders will be falling over themselves to welcome him into the fold after years of awkward relations with the Bush administration. Europeans are adamant that power will not pass form the Atlantic to the Pacific but economics and demographics say otherwise. If America is to remain the global leader for the next fifty years, managing China by first working with friends to shape Asia will be the more important project.
Dr John Lee Cheong Seong is a Foreign Policy Fellow at the Centre for Independent Studies, Sydney. His latest book, 'Will China Fail?' was published in 2007.
