Much has been made of Indonesia’s cool response to America’s increasing military engagement in northern Australia, announced by US President Barack Obama in Canberra this week mid-way through his nine day tour of Asia.
Speaking from the sidelines of the ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) Summit in Bali, Indonesian Foreign Minister Marty Natalegawa expressed concern that the move might provoke a ‘vicious cycle’ of ‘reaction and counter-reaction.’ Indonesia, like its neighbours in Southeast Asia, does not want to be caught in the crossfire of a new US-China arms race.
But it is likely – behind closed doors at least – that Indonesia is more sanguine about the move than Minister Marty’s comments might suggest. Other Southeast Asian states will be even more welcoming of the expanded US presence in the Asia-Pacific Region.
Indonesia, like much of the region, has inched closer towards the United States in recent years. Jakarta lobbied for US involvement in the East Asia summit and quietly welcomed America’s interest in the fractious South China Sea disputes, where China, Taiwan and several ASEAN states have overlapping territorial claims. In 2010, presidents Obama and Yudhoyono signed a Comprehensive Partnership Agreement, and the two countries are enjoying something of a military rapprochement.
Like Australia, Indonesia sees trade with China as key to its economic prosperity. But Jakarta too worries about the prospect of a region dominated by a rapidly strengthening China.
Yet unlike Australia – which makes no secret of its close friendship with the United States – Indonesia is conscious not to be seen as choosing sides. Jakarta wants a strong US presence in the region to balance China’s growing weight without appearing to corner or contain China. Indonesia’s overriding desire is to preserve the status quo so that it can pursue friendly (but not overly close) ties with the United States while building a fruitful economic relationship with China.
This attitude is shared by most of the region. All Southeast Asian states have strong trade links with China, but few would like to see it become the region’s predominant military power.
Countries such as Singapore, Vietnam and The Philippines will be extremely heartened by President Obama’s rather pointed speech to the Australian parliament.
Singapore has long welcomed America’s presence in the region as a strategic counterweight to a growing China. Considered to be America’s strongest non-alliance partner in the region, Singapore regularly hosts US ships in its ports and even upgraded its main naval base to allow US aircraft carriers to dock.
Vietnam historically has had a much more antagonistic relationship with the United States. But with tensions in the South China Sea reaching fever pitch—Chinese vessels reportedly cut the cords of Vietnamese survey ships operating in the resource rich waters earlier in the year— Hanoi has put its animosities to one side and welcomed America’s strategic ‘pivot’ towards the region.
The Philippines, a US treaty ally also locking horns with China in the South China Sea, is loudly and overtly cheering the renewed American focus. While President Obama was in Australia, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton was in Manila, reassuring the Filipinos of her ongoing support. When Obama told the Australian Parliament that the United States would ‘keep our commitments, including our treaty obligations to allies like Australia,’ antipodeans would have no doubt thought of the ANZUS alliance. But it is equally likely that the message was aimed at Filipinos. Philippines Communications Minister Ricky Carandang said this week that the increase US troop presence in Darwin would provide the region with a ‘stabilizing force’.
With a colonial past, and painful memories of bloody Cold War conflicts that raged in the region not too long ago, much of Southeast Asia remains wary of any great power dominating the Asia-Pacific. The ASEAN states are aware that should overt conflict between China and the United States develop, they will be on the front line.
Maritime Southeast Asian states, shaken up by the increasingly rancorous tenor of the South China Sea disputes, are keenly conscious of the importance of America’s implicit security guarantee.
Unlike Australia, not all will be willing to wear their hearts on their sleeves. But all will welcome America’s renewed engagement with Asia.
Jessica Brown is a Research Fellow at The Centre for Independent Studies. Her report Jakarta’s Juggling Act: Balancing China and America in the Asia-Pacific was released by the CIS.