Opinion & Commentary
Allies wary of focus on China
There is excitement throughout Asia that Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has chosen to travel to Asia on her maiden voyage as America’s top diplomat. But there is also quiet but rising concern amongst many of America’s key allies in the region. They are carefully watching America’s “China strategy”.
The common wisdom is that Mr Obama was the world’s choice for US president. Many believed that he would be more “outward looking” and a “better listener” than his opponent Senator John McCain. But the Obama administration needs to understand why diplomats in many of its Asian allies actually saw a McCain presidency as the safer choice.
They had been greatly excited by approaches such as that represented by Mr Richard Armitage, the deputy secretary of state during Mr George W. Bush’s first presidential term: working with existing US allies and security partners in the region to “shape” the future of Asia. This meant, among other things, reaffirming security alliances with countries such as Japan, South Korea, Thailand, the Philippines, Singapore and Australia. It was believed Mr McCain would have adopted this approach.
This strategy was designed to not only improve US influence in the region but to also “manage” the rise of China. America recognized that its period as an undisputed hegemon in the region was gradually coming to an end. But by working with current allies and partners to shape the rules and institutions of the region, the hope was to prevent future Chinese mischief and persuade China that it is better to play by agreed rules than to subvert or revise them.
Asian allies liked this approach because it signaled both the continuation of US commitment to the region and a desire to consult with existing allies. Southeast Asian states (with the exception of Myanmar) were especially pleased because it was a strategy that linked East Asia with Southeast Asia. Southeast Asia’s paranoia that it would not be consulted in shaping a grand bargain between giants in East Asia and the US is enduring.
Although Mr Obama’s Asian strategy is still being formed, the fear in the region is that the centerpiece of his security strategy for the region will be to deepen US relationship with China. And this will be done primarily through direct and bilateral engagement with the Chinese.
As one former senior Singapore official confided to me, rather than shape future Chinese preferences through working with existing partners in East and Southeast Asia, the fear is that America will now try to deepen one-on-one relations with China. The foundation of this later strategy is the perception that US tensions with China stem from “misunderstandings” rather than from any emerging structural or “values-based” conflicts of interest.
This is not to suggest that America will abandon its relationship with existing allies. It won't. But should “bilateral engagement” with China become its paramount aim, China will obviously dominate its attention. Some suspect that the Obama administration does not see a significant role for its allies in shaping America’s China policy.
What we would have, then, is not a “shaping” of Asia but a rising China dominating the attentions of a superpower while its regional allies remain on the sidelines. If this perception were to stick, key US allies such as Japan would increasingly make their own arrangements independently of America. Southeast Asian states would see that they have no choice but to move closer to Beijing.
None of these scenarios would be in America’s interest. Secretary Clinton needs to bring America’s allies with her and not move ahead of them.
Dr John Lee is a visiting fellow at The Centre for Independent Studies in Sydney.
