Opinion & Commentary
India’s rise helps complement US interests in Asia
The lead–up to US–China Strategic and Economic Dialogues are tense and closely followed affairs befitting a showdown between a superpower fighting to maintain its preeminence against its uncooperative and often vituperative primary challenger. In contrast, media outlets and commentators in the United States and Australia have barely raised a pen in covering the inaugural US–India Strategic Dialogue that is taking place this week in Washington and being co–chaired by Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Indian External Affairs Minister S.M. Krishna.
Why the lack of general interest on the eve of such an important summit between the most powerful and most populous democracies in the world? After all, the CIA has been describing India as Asia’s ‘swing state’ since 2006. The US–India strategic relationship is likely to be the enduring positive strategic legacy left behind by the previous Bush Administration; while Indian Prime Minister was President Barack Obama’s first state guest to the White House. It comes down to the unusual case of India’s reemergence – one that is causing remarkably little fear but also creating surprisingly less excitement than the reemergence of a country with one billion people might expect.
Prior to undertaking reforms in the 1990s, a democratic but socialist India was derided and viewed with contempt. Having embarked on a hitherto successful economic reform process, its long–standing democratic traditions and constitution means that India’s reemergence is eagerly welcome by most regional states – as an important member of the evolving ‘democratic community’ in Asia and a significant counterweight to authoritarian China.
Moreover, Indian politics and society seamlessly meet regional and global standards of modern and legitimate social and political systems – what Michael Mandelbaum calls ‘democratic exemplarism’. Unlike the intolerance for transparency and pluralism in China, other states feel reassured that India will seek a multilateral order based on the equality of sovereign nations large and small rather than a future hierarchical order based on size, civilization and tribute. In the current age where realism is once again fashionable, India is proving that domestic political practices and values can have strategic significance.
Then there is the matter of how India is choosing to rise – through full and unembarrassed participation in the American–led regional order. Although India is not seeking to become an American security ally, the strategic objectives of India are remarkably aligned with those of America and Washington’s security partners in the region.
The overall result is a strategic boon for India: political and strategic elites increasingly see India as a muscular, but also predictable, stabilizing, cooperative and attractive rising power. The notable lack of apprehension of India’s reemergence is demonstrated by the remarkable speed with which regional militaries are conducting extensive exercises with the Indian navy.
If political and strategic elites are convinced about India’s worth, multiple surveys such as the Anholt–GfK Roper Nation Brands Index and Chicago Council reports indicate that the same cannot be said for the economic and social elites in America as well as other regional countries.
India’s economy and society is a combination of the truly modern and cutting edge on the one hand, and the medieval on the other. It has both the largest middle class in the world, alongside the largest numbers of people living in poverty. The vibrant reputation of the country’s entrepreneurialism exists alongside a discriminatory caste system that is still strong in rural regions and small towns.
Moreover, unlike the more closed and controlled nature of Chinese society and media where information is restricted and social failings largely hidden from foreign eyes, India’s social ills are openly displayed, talked about and debated. The lack of control over India’s media – rightly regarded as a liberal virtue – means New Delhi cannot devise or shape consistent messages about Indian successes to the foreign audience.
Finally, even though India has world–class strengths in industries such as information technology, telecommunications and biotechnology, its record in achieving widespread and enduring macro–economic and structural reform is still unproven. India still needs land and education reform, and has severe infrastructure deficiencies. Populations throughout Asia are yet to be convinced that India has forever left behind its anemic ‘Hindu rate’ of economic growth; that it has truly left behind its idealistic Nehruvian traditions of socialism, passivity, and stagnation.
Economic and social elites ‘like’ India. But in the unforgiving world of international politics and popular opinion, earning the ‘respect’ that comes from achievement is the greater virtue. The lack of interest in the US–India Strategic Dialogue indicates that we are at ease with India’s reemergence – and that diplomats in both countries have gone about their work effectively, quietly and subtly. But it also tells us that unlike Beijing’s energy and intent in accumulating ‘comprehensive national power’, India’s rise has yet to capture the American and even much of Asia’s imagination.
If New Delhi proves the naysayers wrong and succeeds in placating the skepticism of American and regional elites, then the attractiveness of India’s rise means it is powerfully placed to help shape the ‘Asian Century’.
Dr. John Lee is a research fellow at The Centre for Independent Studies in Sydney and a visiting fellow at the Hudson Institute in Washington DC. His paper, Unrealized potential: India’s Soft Power Ambition in Asia, will be released by CIS in June
