Opinion & Commentary
The next battle is against tribalism: Nation building will not succeed in post-Taliban Afghanistan
Nomadic tribes have been at war in Afghanistan, among themselves and with their neighbours, since time immemorial. Afghanistan is not a country in any meaningful sense,. but a scattering of tribes in sparsely watered valleys and plains dominated by the Hindu Kush. When nomadic tribes could no longer seek its pastures in summer, returning to neighbouring lands in winter, warfare followed. Agriculture, fledgling manufacturing and trade were destroyed.
As separatist movements engage in terrorism in Spain, the Balkans and Africa, it is extremely unlikely that any central government can survive in Afghanistan. A loose federation, with provincial governments determining local issues, is much more likely to succeed. Given the deep religious differences among the various peoples of Afghanistan, only a secular state that clearly separates the Mosque and the State, can ensure stability.
The social and political principles to which a federation would have to subscribe are clear. They would have to be centred on the freedom of the individual, with equality for women as well as men. Basic civil, criminal and commercial laws would have to be introduced. Individual property rights and free internal trade would have to be the springboard from which the provincial economies could be revived. Where a change of government after a victory over dictatorship introduced principles of freedom, notably in West Germany and Japan after World War II, political and economic success followed. In Afghanistan, a government is being cobbled together without principles for short term convenience. Similar previous attempts, for example in Zimbabwe and Cambodia, led to disaster.
The diverse members of the Northern Alliance rightly claim seats at the table. Their long struggle was critical to the defeat of the Taliban. They have reacted to what they sense to be important issues for their American and British supporters by relaxing discrimination against women, notably by allowing girls to attend schools. Women can walk outside the house and discard the burqa.
Understandably, after experience of the Taliban, they will need time to adjust to normality. The Alliance has not, however, yet involved any women in discussions about the future and it is still a long way from putting forward principles that would make Afghanistan into a viable state.
Afghanistan’s neighbours have an interest in the return of the several million refugees to whom they are unwilling hosts. That, however, should be the limit of their representation. The principal neighbouring countries seeking a role in determining Afghanistan’s future are unpleasant, often ruthless, dictatorships that have totally mismanaged their own economies. Their people are poor and oppressed so that extremists flourish. They are no models for a democratic or a prosperous Afghanistan.
US and European leaders are showing a dismal lack of knowledge of Afghanistan’s history, society and economy. Their main concern, and of the UN, is to put together a ‘deal’ that might hold the country together. There are no signs of principles here either.
Once the immediate humanitarian crisis is relieved, bringing in aid bureaucrats and buckets of assistance will not make the country viable. Experience as East Timor’s suggests that a large UN, foreign aid and NGO presence is likely to stimulate corruption.
Some of the considerable number of educated Afghans who have fled the country will be attracted back if a principled government takes over. Afghans, in any case, are a tough and enterprising people. Once there is agreement on a workable but principled framework, they will be able to manage their own reconstruction. The women who ran clandestine schools for girls, at very great danger to themselves and their charges, are immediately available for bureaucratic and representative government positions.
Poppies have been the only commercially significant agricultural crop in Afghanistan for almost 50 years. Growing poppies is the only way farmers can make even a meagre living. Afghanistan supplies about 70 per cent of the world’s heroin. Attempts to replace it by corn or camomile have inevitably failed.
So has paying the Taliban millions to stop growing poppies. Because heroin is illegal in consuming countries, profits from processing and growing it are huge. They have made many millionaires from Afghan landlords to dealers at school gates in the West. They have funded terrorism in Chechnya, the Balkans, the Middle East, Africa and on September 11th in the United States.
Making drugs illegal, like alcohol during Prohibition, has failed. If the illegal heroin trade continues, no government, no matter how carefully constructed, can succeed in Afghanistan. The mega profits and corruption associated with illegality will continue to be the real rulers of Afghanistan.
About the Author:
Emeritus Professor Helen Hughes is a Senior Fellow at The Centre of Independent Studies. She worked in Afghanistan for the World Bank in the early 1970s.
