Opinion & Commentary
Opinion and Commentary contains media articles written by CIS researchers.
Categories
Nothing to fear from China's foreign policy
Chinese President Xi Jinping knows Asian stability will only help his ambitions. Read More
Revitalising the China story
China faces profound challenges that will require bold action on the part of party leaders. Read More
Business didn’t wait for White Paper
We can expect meagre policy returns from the Asian Century White Paper. Read More
A cultural revolution to celebrate
In a very real sense, Australia is already Asian. Read More
Sorry, Malcolm, Australia needs the US in the Asian century
Now is the time for our friendship with America to prosper and thrive. Read More
Reduced defence spending may well be sound public policy
Australia is under US protection and the world is a more peaceful place now. Read More
Faith placed in Uncle Sam as neighbourhood warily welcomes China
Australians have become used to thinking about the rise of China, the role of America, and what the interplay between these two powers means for us. Related Read More
Avoiding conflict but quietly waving flag
Southeast Asian governments will welcome increased US involvement in the region. Read More
Complacency is the danger in Asia's power games
Even if one disagrees with Wolfowitz's thinking on the Middle East, this viewpoint on China policy cannot be easily dismissed. The assistant secretary of state for east Asia and the Pacific when Ferdinand... Read More
Complacency is the danger in Asia's power games
Even if one disagrees with Wolfowitz's thinking on the Middle East, this viewpoint on China policy cannot be easily dismissed. The assistant secretary of state for east Asia and the Pacific when Ferdinand... Read More
Pakistan a Chinese pawn to stall India
AT the Shangri-La Dialogue meeting of defence ministers in Singapore last month, Indian Defence Minister Pallam Raju was asked whether India could exercise similar self-restraint should another terrorist... Read More
China’s exports don’t fuel boom
While China undoubtedly needs both for the communist party to remain in power, the dilemma for the country’s leaders is that the way China achieves rapid economic growth is increasingly the reason behind... Read More
ASEAN must include US in talks on South China Sea
Indonesia was positioning itself as an ‘honest broker’ in the South China Sea dispute. Now it appears much more circumspect. Read More
US will Remain the Preeminent Player in Asia
In early May, I gave an interview to the Chinese state-run Global Times newspaper arguing that China was probably ‘the loneliest rising great power in world history’ Read More
Beware China's control of rare earth minerals
China’s rare-earth quota policies will have global repercussions. Read More
China and the tactical utility of international norms
China is finding it difficult to translate economic size into normative leadership, let alone dominance. Read More
Missing the woods for the trees
China won't be happy if India becomes an Asia power. Read More
China's influence gap
Beijing is finding that translating its economic size into regional strategic and diplomatic leverage is more difficult than it first appeared. Read More
Japan's economic demons dog China
The enduring flaws in Japan’s political economy’s continue to stunt its growth. Read More
China's self-defeating currency policy
Although a stronger yuan would be better for the economy, it would hurt the Chinese Communist Party. Read More
China’s America Obsession:
Osama bin Laden’s death will only accelerate America’s reengagement with its Asian allies and partners at China’s expense. Read More
PM may trump Rudd in managing China
Gillard’s lack of foreign policy experience and ambition could well be a blessing in disguise. Read More
The China hedge
Beijing’s mantra of ‘building mutual respect and trust’ remains hollow. Unfortunately, this is unlikely to change since ambiguity is at the heart of China’s military grand strategy. Read More
Why Taiwan will fail
Taipei has a plan to make a virtue out of the necessity of greater integration. But Beijing will demand reunification and time is on its side. Read More
Cracks in ‘Great Firewall of China’
A blogger’s disappearance in China reveals nervous despots. Read More
Good news for Chinese banks, bad news for reforms
Beijing has been increasing the spread in Chinese banks to improve the quality of their assets. Put simply, the more money China's dominant state-owned banks lend, the greater their profits. Read More
Haunted by China's ghost cities
If Australia thinks it can avoid the ‘Dutch disease’ by relying on the relentless construction of empty Chinese shopping malls, ghost cities and unused infrastructure, then we too could be in for a... Read More
Why Australia's socialist Prime Minister now loves America
Hedging against authoritarian China by strengthening the U.S.-led hub-and-spokes security system in the region is now Australia’s preferred—and possibly only—option. Read More
Party needs to loosen its grip
The Chinese mode of governance is highly corrupt and dependent on questionable lending practices, while local wards gain revenue through unsustainable and often illegal property development enterprises. Read More
The problem with China’s banks – unknown and unknowable
The official accounts of China’s banks indicating reasonable financial health simply do make sense. Just as senior banking executives cannot predict what the majority of their branches will do, they... Read More
Watching Egypt crumble: Mideast chaos emboldens China's hard-liners
But while many Western observers hope the unrest in Egypt might cause the CCP to think twice about maintaining its iron grip, unrest in the Middle East is bring home some very different lessons for Beijing. Read More
Hu's real agenda
An improvement in Sino-U.S. diplomatic relations is not the same as cooperation. Read More
Cooperation and the Chinese Hydra
The Chinese leader does not have the authority to make the hard decisions that Obama will be pressing him to make—meaning that doing business with China will be a lot more chaotic and unpredictable than... Read More
How the U.S. Can Manage Expectations of U.S.-China Talks
Whoever is leading China is not a dominant leader with real power, but a figure riding a streak of tigers often pulling in different directions. Read More
Beijing’s motives behind rare-earth metals
There’s a growing suspicion that China is increasingly taking a zero-sum rather than ‘win-win’ approach to open markets and free trade. Read More
Watch out for Russian wild card in Asia-Pacific
Russia is pulling out all the stops to court India to maintain its position in Asia's future balance of power. Read More
People's republics
By 2040, the world may be talking, not about a Washington or Beijing consensus, but a 'Mumbai Consensus' on economic development. Read More
China's national insecurity
Beijing sees Liu Xiaobo's Nobel Peace Prize as part of an international strategy to contain China's rise. Read More
China and India's Growing Energy Rivalry
Competition for oil and gas resources will be the most likely cause of serious tension between the two Asian giants in the years ahead. Read More
Tearing Chindia apart
It was obvious that China and India in particular had coordinated strategies before the summit to scupper any binding agreement. Read More
Rudd deserves points for confronting some brutal truths
The leaked conversation between Hillary Clinton and Kevin Rudd contradicts the perception that the former Australian prime minister was "soft" on China. Read More
What if the Chinese Bubble Bursts?
If the onset of the global financial crisis in 2008 is any guide, we already know what Beijing will do in the event of a bursting of its bubble. Read More
U.S. envoy to ASEAN
A productive American relationship with ASEAN, particularly when it joins the East Asia Summit as a full member in 2011, is critical to stability in an increasingly tense region. Read More
In the Asian century, Washington must still offer leadership
Tensions between the US and China should not present any fundamental dilemmas for Canberra since the capacity of Beijing to make Australia choose is quite weak. Read More
The end of the charm offensive
China's neighbours welcome a strong China, just not a dominant one -- and that's where the United States comes in. Read More
The stakes at the East Asia summit
Beijing wants to ease America out of the region, but other nations want to entrench the U.S. role. Read More
China won't revalue the yuan
No amount of hectoring by Barack Obama is going to change the calculus of Chinese leaders. An undervalued currency may be critical to their very survival. Read More
The end of smile diplomacy?
Beneath the façade of unity in Chinese decision-making is the gradual but inexorable fragmentation in the formulation of regional strategy and the conduct of foreign policy itself. Read More
China-Japan tensions will rise
Tension between China and Japan is structural, strategic and institutional – something that can only be managed rather than resolved. Read More
The resurrection of Kevin Rudd
The question now is whether Mr. Rudd has learned from his mistakes and will be a team player, or whether he plans to use his profile and foreign-policy experience to rebuild his leadership credentials... Read More
Don’t rush to back Beijing over Delhi
While China's efficiency hides a brittleness, chaotic India's model is deceptively resilient. Read More
If only China were more like Japan
China is heading toward a Japanese-style economic debacle and that the process won’t be as gradual or peaceful, says John Lee in Business Week, 1 September 2010. Read More
China's water grab
Forget the South China Sea. If America really cares about strengthening its presence in Asia, it’ll focus on the Mekong River instead, says John Lee in Foreign Policy, 24 August 2010. Read More
China's rise and the road to war
As with Germany a century ago, an emerging power is overestimating its capabilities, says John Lee in The Wall Street Journal, 6 August 2010. Read More
Obama switching sides over China
There is renewed American preparedness to join with regional allies and partners in checking China’s ambition. Read More
Unpacking the black box
China’s dicey statistics tell us a lot, says John Lee in Newsweek, 30 July 2010. Read More
The uncurious case of Xue Feng’s jail sentence
The geologist and U.S. citizen was charged with stealing Chinese state secrets. A case of Deja Hu? Read More
Hardsell soft power
China dedicates considerable more resources to building ‘soft’ power than India. Read More
The great China tech rip-off
China's resilient economic growth has prevented the economic crisis from becoming an economic catastrophe for the world but among the dark sides of China's rising economic power is an astonishing disrespect... Read More
A well-timed currency kowtow
China's currency reform is meant to appease foreign politicians, not rebalance the domestic economy. Read More
India’s edge over China: soft power
In the struggle to win support around Asia, India’s openness gives the country a big advantage compared with China, says John Lee in Business Week, 18 June 2010 Read More
China’s got a secret
China’s policy of concealment and fostering uncertainty are the main impediments to deepening its military-to-military ties with the United States. Read More
Opaqueness at heart of Chinese military’s U.S. strategy
Chinese reluctance to commit to meaningful high level military-to-military talks with America is not as much about Taiwan but a reluctance to show its perceived military weaknesses and creating ambiguity... Read More
Don't buy China's growth mirage
Rural-to-urban migration is having less and less influence on the rising levels of fixed and asset investment activity occurring throughout China. Read More
EU not on China’s chessboard
European nations are making a mistake courting China as to maintain relevance they need to align with the US. Read More
Authoritarian China won’t bow to US policy
Australia needs to rethink its special relationship with the US if it wants to be China’s friend. Read More
China will not be tamed
Shaping Chinese tactics is one thing, but taming China, by attempting to determine its destiny, is another, says John Lee in the Business Spectator, 6 May 2010. Read More
What did Hu expect?
Only the willfully stubborn or the ignorant will argue that Stern Hu’s admission of guilt on the charge of bribery means that concerns held about the Chinese economic legal and political environment... Read More
In dealing with Beijing, overambition tends to backfire
Obama and Rudd are having more trouble with China than Bush and Howard. Read More
Inflated expectations of a rising yuan
Chinese inflation in theory can lift the currency, but don’t hold your breath. Read More
Why China is stepping on toes
Foreign companies will be watching the outcome of the Stern Hu trail very carefully. Read More
China between T-bills and a hard place
Despite Beijing’s addiction to US bonds, the proportion of US government debt financed by Chinese foreign exchange reserves has been falling significantly since 2008. Read More
Perception gap
American faith in the transformative power of China's economic rise might be misplaced. Read More
Paper tiger: China's no threat to the US
Some Chinese leaders think Beijing can use its financial clout to punish the US, but there's little reason for the White House to worry. Read More
Confronting Beijing’s new bipolar reality
America’s attempts to ‘manage’ China’s rise are failing. Read More
Big trouble with big China
Relations between Washington and Beijing are looking more tense than ever. Read More
Why China won’t be a ‘responsible stakeholder’
The U.S.-China bilateral relationship is the most important one in the world. But the flaws in the relationship model constructed by Washington are becoming more apparent. Read More
China's new Silk Road geo-strategy in Asia
China is seeking to change the geostrategic parameters of the existing game for influence in Asia. Read More
Why Rudd has overstayed his welcome in Asia
John Howard had far more gravitas and influence in Australasia than Kevin Rudd, who is starting to look like he doesn’t know how to respond to China’s rise in Asia. Read More
China’s next generation of leaders
The appointment of five provincial-level Chinese Communist Party chiefs in early December is a reminder that the ascension of China’s next generation of leaders, who will take power in 2012, may be the... Read More
China’s intransigence is a sign of its insecurity
Recent events have convinced many observers that we are entering an unprecedented era marked by rising Chinese power and influence at the expense of the West. Read More
China fears climate change openness
Beijing, which fears that external monitoring might reveal internal dysfunction, was backed into a corner by the United States at Copenhagen. Read More
Don’t overlook India’s consumer market for China’s
Urban consumers in India will likely drive more global business than their Chinese counterparts while India’s rural development far outpaces China’s. Read More
Chinese Urbanization Put on Hold
Beijing will gradually relax the hukou, or household registration system, to give rural Chinese citizens an opportunity to seek a better life in the city – not just speeding up the rate of poverty alleviation... Read More
Pacific angst
The very fact that America needs to negotiate with its Asian allies and partners – and sometimes even compromise – means that Washington will adapt in ways that allow it to remain the preferred security... Read More
China woos Africa – and not just for its resources
While much of the world still views Africa as a basket-case continent, Beijing is thinking ahead and busy establishing a foothold in Africa's potentially large consumer markets. Read More
Rudd fails to court New Delhi
If Australia wants to remain an active, relevant and influential middle power in Asia, then spending the next half decade improving our bilateral relationship with countries such as India is much more... Read More
India Fast Becoming Asia's 'Swing State'
If India’s unpredictable political parties remain committed to continue reforms, and the bilateral partnership between Washington and New Delhi continue to deepen, a rising India (along with a still-dominant... Read More
China's potential enemy is US' good friend
If India’s unpredictable political parties remain committed to continue reforms, and the bilateral partnership between Washington and New Delhi continue to deepen, a rising India (along with a still-dominant... Read More
Beijing birthday spin distorts reality
As the week-long celebrations marking the 60th anniversary of the founding of modern China roll on, the message coming out of Beijing is that China’s evolution into a confident, strong, just and prosperous... Read More
China’s statistical setback
Although China has been decentralizing and officials have multiplied, it is not the building of institutions that encourages public accountability. Read More
The Party's Not Over: Why China's 60th birthday is nothing to celebrate
Inone important respect, authoritarian China is failing: while the Chinese state is rich and the party powerful, civil society is weak and the vast majority of people remain poor. Read More
China's Ring of Power
While nobody was paying attention, Beijing was busy cornering the market on a little-known, but much coveted, strategic commodity. Read More
Foreign Policy: Why Beijing Needs To Be Brutal
After scolding the West for interfering in the internal affairs of Iran, Beijing’s public relations department will now be on the defensive following riots in Urumqi, the capital of the westernmost region... Read More
China's Empty Land Reform
Recently, Beijing announced new procedures to ‘give an effective guarantee’ to rural citizens that their land rights would be respected by ‘standardising’ arbitration procedures. This is explicit... Read More
Why China fears Obama: The danger of an attractive America
The enthusiasm with which Obama’s election was received in Europe will not be replicated in China. Read More
The Year of the Ox will bring little prosperity for the Chinese
Beijing's “authoritarian capitalist” model has gone as far as it can. Chaos, corruption and indecision have been ignored. Read More
PAP replacing PLA as the Party’s army
Following the crackdown of Tibetan protesters in March, President Hu Jintao issued a call for “greater security guarantees” against protesters and other disruptive forces leading up to the August Olympic... Read More
China’s complicit universities
It is true that intellectuals tend to give more weight to their role in society than is generally warranted. But it is also true that intellectuals are one of the first groups targeted by authoritarian... Read More
Democracy’s slowboat to China getting slower
Around 320,000 Britons visited China in 2007. One of the world’s great cultures has finally embarked on a path towards prosperity. China is a much more comfortable and welcoming place than it has ever... Read More
Reassessing China’s future beyond the Beijing Olympics
China has averaged double digit growth each year for over three decades and its economy has grown four times in size over this period. Now the second largest economy in the world (by PPP measurement,)... Read More
Why China’s loyal youth no longer want democracy
In the last two decades, China’s economy has tripled in size. The numbers of young, relatively affluent people (15–25 years) number around 17–20 million, almost the size of Australia’s population.... Read More
Democracy for the few
China’s transformation from the backward, autocratic economy of just three decades ago is probably the most spectacular and rapid in history. Read More
‘China’s unbalanced economy providing silver lining
Chinese leaders and economists have been saying for a decade that its economy is pulled by two strong horses and one weak donkey. China is much too reliant on unsustainably high levels of (inefficient)... Read More
Bachelors wreaking havoc in China
China’s leaders seem to be good at fixing big problems. They have transformed a backward economy into perhaps the most dynamic one in the world. More recently, their response to the earthquake in Sichuan... Read More
What does China really want from the Pacific?
Why is China so interested in the Pacific? After all, despite the differences in size, population, wealth, and influence between China and islands in the region, the Chinese have literally rolled out the... Read More
Capital flows the wrong way in China
China has recently indicated that it intends to move away from an investment-driven growth strategy toward a consumption based one in order to sustain the next stages of its economic growth. This was reiterated... Read More
The danger of pursuing ‘Harmony’ in Chinese foreign policy
The recently concluded five-yearly congress in Beijing reaffirmed two things. First, President Hu Jintao is unchallenged as China’s supreme leader. Second, Hu’s ‘Three Harmonies’ policy will continue... Read More
A contrarian view of the economic miracle
In Will China Fail? The Limits and Contradictions of Market Socialism, author John Lee takes on the growing parade of China experts who offer optimistic scenarios for the nation’s ‘peaceful rise’... Read More
Will the China boom last? – don’t bet your house on it
Ask anyone in Western Australia whether China presents an economic risk or opportunity and there will be few takers for the former - and with good reason. While other major economies such as America and... Read More
China: Death of the Dragon?
In his final press conference as Chinese Premier in March 2003, Zhu Rongji confidently declared that, ‘all the tasks needed to sustain economic growth over the past four years have been completed.’ Read More
Game of Pacific cop and dodgers
The Howard Government's decision to help the Solomons by restoring civil order to the South Pacific islands is welcome. Read More