Media Releases
Will China Fail?
The vast majority of China watchers are optimists, pessimists are few and far between. For optimists, China’s rise is the next exciting instalment of Asia’s economic rise since World War Two. In a new book published by CIS Will China Fail? Dr John Lee makes the case for pessimism, arguing that ‘market socialism’ is failing and a politically unreformed China cannot sustain its economic and ‘peaceful rise’. Instead, the regime’s pervasiveness, interference, and control over key areas of the economy, society, and institutions have led to frightening economic, political and social deficits—making China’s current trajectory precarious rather than promising.
‘Behind China’s official world beating growth rates, the government’s place in society is tenuous, and the tensions between the regime and the population are increasing. The leadership had named “domestic stability” achieved by a “harmonious society” as its single biggest challenge. The Chinese Communist Party has hedged their bets unwisely and China’s growth strategy, unsustainable in any case, has come at a huge political cost. The regime is losing its appeal, its rationale to exist and rule exclusively is weak, its capacity to garner and mobilise support is declining, and its organisation is fragmenting.’
‘In a story typical of authoritarian regimes long after the fires of revolution have died, it is seen as corrupt, self-serving, and perhaps worst of all for an authoritarian regime, increasingly ineffectual and irrelevant. For a regime that tries to combine the role of “defender of the socialist faith” as well as “free market reformer”, the contradictions mean that they have succeeded in neither.’
Dr Lee identifies the political motives at the heart of the ‘Chinese economic miracle’. The primary economic strategy is growth. China will grow its way out of its problems. Yet, growth is not the ultimate objective—regime preservation is—and any pro-growth policy has to be understood alongside the constraints of these political objectives.
Will China Fail? examines the economic and political problems beneath China’s growth strategy:
- China’s problematic economic structure, particularly the allocation and waste of capital
- Financial impact of non-performing loans and inefficient state controlled industries
- Stifled reform and corruption within China
- Foreign policy outlook, Taiwan and the emergence of a ‘chauvinistic nationalism’
- Consequences of the regime’s declining legitimacy and increasing social unrest
Will China Fail? serves as a warning against our well-intentioned ‘China blindness’, offering a compelling case for the likelihood of turmoil and turbulent times ahead for the Chinese people.
John Lee is a Visiting Fellow at The Centre for Independent Studies.
He is available for comment.
Review copies of the book are available on request.
All media enquiries:
Leonie Phillips
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www.cis.org.au
